War impact on the market value of the industrial complex enterprises of Ukraine

Abstract

The purpose of the paper is to assess the war impact on the market value of the industrial complex enterprises of Ukraine. This is an important task for determining the investment needs to restore the Ukrainian economy, substantiating the reparations for Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, which should include the damage caused after the unleashing of a full-scale war from 24.02.2022 , and losses in the early phases of military aggression (after 22.02.2014). The author’s method of assessing the market value is based on the CVA concept. The war impact on the enterprises market value should be manifested through changes in the effects of exploitation and financing liabilities, which show a differentiated effect from changes in the internal and external business environment of enterprises in wartime. Estimates should be based on the possibility of both negative and positive effects. The main direction of the negative influence is the financing effect, which is due to the action of the external business environment factor. The Kane-Essian argument should be considered in the estimates by calculating normalized effect sizes. The normalized cumulative war impact equaled 165.1 billion dollars, which corresponds to 44.4% of the total market value of industrial enterprises of Ukraine, estimated for the period 2014–2022. About 14.4% of the total war impact on the market value of Ukraine’s industrial enterprises is attributed to the financing effect. Loss assessments can be used to evaluate the investment needs to restore destroyed and damaged business property. To determine the amount of compensation for damage caused by the war, the market value of an enterprise according to the CVA method can be used.