Adaptive Response Methodology For Sustainable Energy Systems Of The National Economy In The Security Dimension

Abstract

This article presents a methodology that combines expert assessments and mathematical calculations to quantify the impact of both external and internal threats on the energy security level of a state. The approach utilizes an energy security model to assess the overall impact of changes in integrated index components. Adaptive control methods are employed to decompose integrated indices and security indicators. The methodology incorporates indicators that determine safe existence limits within security gradations and uses normalization techniques and dynamic weighting coefficients. It also formalizes the impact of threats on the integral index, constructs a new trajectory for goal achievement, and decomposes the dynamics into components and energy security indicators. The developed methodology aids in formulating management decisions to mitigate and eliminate threats to energy security, ensuring adaptability within the energy system and maintaining a trajectory of sustainable development. This can be applied at various levels, from local to national, through the Energy Sustainability Plan of the Country.